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Tesla's cash reserves are less than May. Muske's profit confidence comes from China?

via:CnBeta     time:2019/6/25 8:32:57     readed:131

"Securities Daily" reporter observed that the recent Tesla stock price has been around $ 310, calculated by September 2017, the record of 389.61 US dollars, the current stock price point has fallen by nearly 20%.

In fact, in Tesla's latest report to the US Securities and Exchange Commission, three of the company's top ten shareholders have recently sold off the company's stock. Among them, Fidelity Investments, the second-largest shareholder holding nearly 10% of the shares, sold a total of nearly one-third of Tesla shares held in the last three quarters of 2017.

David Temperino, a prominent Goldman analyst, recently reiterated his "sell" rating for Tesla shares, predicting that Model 3 electric vehicles would be delivered much faster than expected. It even affirmed that Tesla's target share price would fall nearly 40% to $205 over the next six months.

Despite this, Tesla CEO Musk is always confident. There are indications that this confidence is likely to come from the Chinese market. The reporter noted that Musk had said frankly that Tesla set up a factory in China to meet the huge market demand of China and some Asian countries. "It is really the only way to make the price of the car cheaper."

In an interview with the Securities Daily reporter, some people in the industry said that there is no country or region in the world that considers electric vehicles in the national strategy. This is the most powerful benefit for Tesla.

The above-mentioned person said that China, as the world's largest automobile production and sales country, not only saved Volkswagen, but is still the world's largest single market for luxury brands. "Muske has agreed to China's joint venture conditions and opened the factory in the Yangtze River Delta as soon as possible. Under the influence of many concept stocks and Tencent shareholders, Tesla's future is difficult to be short."

Cash reserve or less than 5 months

Model 3 mass production was postponed

According to Bloomberg News, Tesla has burned down $8,000 per minute on average in the past 12 months. At this rate, Tesla will use up its current cash reserves in August this year. Recently, Goldman Sachs analyst David Tamborino reiterated his "sell" rating on Tesla shares on the grounds that the delivery speed of Model 3 electric vehicles will be much lower than expected.

In the plan of Tesla CEO Musk, Model 3 is an important part of the general consumer field, but the capacity problem is always difficult to understand. It is understood that Tesla invested a lot of money in the third quarter of 2017 to improve the capacity of Model3, but its effect is not satisfactory, only produced 260 Model3, the actual delivery of users is only 222, far lower than expected. The third-quarter earnings report showed that Tesla's net loss was as high as $671 million, making it the biggest quarterly loss since its inception.

In November 2017, Tesla lowered its production forecast and delayed the production of 5,000 Model 3s per week until the end of the first quarter of 2018. In a recent letter to shareholders, Tesla stated that the delivery of Model 3 proved that “it is very difficult to accurately predict the specific production speed at a specific time”.

In this context, in January of this year, Tesla once again lowered the production target of Model3 electric vehicles. It is expected that by the end of June 2018, 5,000 Model 3s can be assembled every week, and the delivery plan will be postponed for three months.

In fact, the continuous delay in mass production and delivery plans not only plagues the intended owners, but also puts Tesla under tremendous pressure. For Tesla, the capacity target cannot be achieved, and the pressure to solve the capital will face debt financing or equity financing. The result of the promise that is constantly difficult to deliver is the confidence of overdraft investors, which makes financing more difficult.

Financial losses are expanding quarter by quarter

China's revenue growth is over 90%

According to the latest financial report, Tesla's global revenue growth in 2017 reached nearly 12 billion US dollars, with a growth rate of over 67%. Among them, the Chinese market is particularly outstanding, with an increase of more than 90% compared with 2016, becoming Tesla's fastest growing global market.

The reporter noted that in 2017 Tesla added seven direct experience centers nationwide. In 2018, Tesla opened two direct experience centers in Qingdao Vientiane City and Chongqing Xinguang Tiandi in just two months.

In an interview with reporters, Tesla sales staff said that the awareness of new energy vehicles in China is constantly improving, and more and more car owners are inclined to choose a technology-savvy model to show their attitude towards life. Tesla is particularly strong in terms of market acceptance and consumer support due to its high brand value.

Earlier, Tesla China Vice President Tao Lin said in an interview that China is a very important market for Tesla. "The growth of the entire Chinese market is very bright in the global financial report. Tesla's strategy in China must be very long-term." Tao Lin said.

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